Lake Minnetonka housing market 2018 – Year in Review

Lake Minnetonka's Wayzata Bay from the North

In 2018 the NorthstarMLS listed 270 homes for sale on Lake Minnetonka and recorded 141 homes sold. This is their story. Told with riveting data and facts from Infosparks based on information lifted from our good friends at the NorthstarMLS. Our journey will look at single family homes listed with private lakefront on Lake Minnetonka and nothing else.

Lake Minnetonka homes sold - average price per square foot received 2016-2018

Overall Market Conditions

  • Median Price per Square Foot: $404 ($339 in 2017) +19.2%
  • Median Sales Price: $1,560,000 ($1,200,000) +30%
  • Days on Market (Median): 94 (87) +8%
  • Closed Sales: 141 (183) -23%
  • Median % of Last List Price Received: 95.7% (95.8%) -0.1%
  • Months Supply* (Year Average): 6.7 (7.1) -5.6% Months Supply in December: 4.3 (3.9) +10.3

According to Infosparks, 2018 set a record for price per square foot on Lake Minnetonka. Looking back as far as 2005 the closest we come for any 12 month period is March 2006 through March 2007 at $392 a square foot – peak of the market.
Lake Minnetonka’s median sales price also shattered records in 2018.

Lake Minnetonka Median Sales price 2005-2018

Look at that chart! Homes for sale on Lake Minnetonka have been closing above the 2006-2007 market peak for a while now, but the end of year tally for 2018 is something new entirely, besting not just the 1.4M threshold for median sales price but also 1.5M. I have a hunch that we are going to see a big increase in offerings in 2019, as homeowners see these prices and look to cash out. Already, we’re beginning to see the start of that in the data. For instance, closed sales were down for the year. Also, market time ticked up slightly. Then the months supply of lakefront houses, although down for the year on average, was up at the end of the year as new listings flooded the market in the 4th quarter.

The Lake Minnetonka market is more complex than that though. Let’s break it down by price point. A reminder that we are only looking at single family homes for sale with lakefront directly on Lake Minnetonka.

Lake Minnetonka housing supply chart - 2018

Lake Minnetonka $1,000,000 and Under

  • Median Days on Market: 73 (67 in 2017) +9%
  • Closed Sales: 41 (77) -46.8%
  • Median % of Last List Price Received: 96.9% (97.6%) -0.7%
  • Months Supply (Year Average): 4.2 (3.4) +23.5%
  • Months Supply in December: 5.1 (0.9) +466.7%

The sub 1M lakeshore market saw some inevitable inventory bloat, as a flurry of new homes for sale tested the market’s ceiling. As a result, market time increased and closed sales dropped precipitously, which made the months supply metric balloon towards the end of the year. But this price point stayed a seller’s market throughout the year and we expect that to continue in 2019, albeit a more balanced version than we saw in 2017.

Lake Minnetonka closed home sales 2018 - by price point

$1,000,000 to $1,500,000

  • Median Days on Market: 101 (128 in 2017) -21.1%
  • Closed Sales: 26 (39) -33.3%
  • Median % of Last List Price Received: 94.5% (94.1%) +0.4%
  • Months Supply (Year Average): 6.3 (5.5) -12.7%
  • Months Supply in December: 3.5 (4.8) -27.1%

$1,500,000 to $2,500,000

  • Median Days on Market: 107 (130 in 2017) -17.7%
  • Closed Sales: 40 (32) +25%
  • Median % of Last List Price Received: 96% (94.7%) +1.4%
  • Months Supply (Year Average): 6.9 (7.6) -9.2%
  • Months Supply in December: 2.5 (3.5) -28.6%

Better news for the lake Minnetonka tweeners, as homes for sale in the 1M to 2.5M range saw decreases in supply and market time. In addition, closed sale activity shifted forward in the 1.5M – 2.5M range and slowed a bit in the 1M to 1.5M range. This mirrors the shifts we saw at the high and low end of the Lake Minnetonka scene.

$2,500,000 and up

  • Median Days on Market: 107 (130 in 2017) -17.7%
  • Closed Sales: 34 (35) -2.9%
  • Median % of Last List Price Received: 95.1% (92.8%) +2.5%
  • Months Supply (Year Average): 9.5 (16.1) -41%
  • Months Supply in December: 4.7 (7.5) -37.3%

2018 was a great year for upper end properties on the lake. Big decreases in market time and supply. Big time increases in median last list price received. The only thing missing was an uptick in closed sales, which we did not get! But, the sharply lowered market supply is great news for well positioned sellers of luxury houses in 2019.

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